Saturday, April 13, 2013

Top 5 Busts for 2013 Fantasy Football

1. Matt Ryan (QB)

Let me start by saying this... Ryan will have a very good fantasy season in 2013. However, he will not be a top 7 QB, and shouldn't be drafted as one. He put up big stats in 2012, finishing with 4719 yards and 32 TD's. I'd expect a line closer to his 2011 season when he put up 4,177 yards and 29 TD's. He has the weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones, but I see Steven Jackson's arrival and Tony Gonzalez's age as two concerning factors. Gonzalez proved last season he still is a beast, but can he repeat his last season? My answer is no, he can't.

2. Arian Foster (RB)

Foster has been a workhorse over the last 3 seasons. Over the last three seasons, he has had 393 touches (2010), 331 in 13 games (2011), and 391 touches (2012). Over that span, he has seen his YPC reduce from 4.9 in 2010 to 4.1 in 2012. I believe he's been over-worked, and an injury isn't far off. Throw in the fact that Foster has Ben Tate backing him up, with Tate's career YPC at 5.1, and I see a drastic decline in production for 2013.

3. James Jones (WR)

The loss of Greg Jennings should lead to added opportunities, but there are still too many mouths to feed (Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley). I think he can have a solid season... don't expect the 14 TD's to become a habit though. My projection is for Jones to finish with 65 receptions, 850 yards and 5 TD's. Not sure if this will classify him in your bust category, but I can see him being drafted WAY too early when draft season rolls around.

4.  Reggie Wayne (WR)

As much as this pains me to admit (as a Colts fan), I don't see Wayne being able to produce stats similar to what he put up last season. At 34 years old, and turning 35 during the upcoming season, a decline is bound to happen. The Colts are also loaded with young talent at WR and TE, only adding to the chance of a drop in production. I'm not saying not to draft Wayne. Just don't draft him as your WR1 because he won't produce like one. If you can grab him as your second or third WR, then go for it. My projection is for Wayne to finish with 75 receptions, 950-1000 yards and 4 TD's.

5. Tony Gonzalez (TE)

As I mentioned in the Matt Ryan segment above, I don't see Gonzalez being able to repeat his success of last season. At 37, I think it is finally time we see a decline in his fantasy production. I'd expect him to put up a season similar to his 2010 line. Gonzalez will finish with 65-70 receptions, 700 yards and 4-5 TD's. He will still be a TE1, but more of a borderline starter as opposed to top five at the position.

To clarify, by "bust", I am simply referring to the fact that the above players won't live up to their high draft status.

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